Proposition 30: Voters split on tax that would raise $6 billion to help fund schools

Gov. Jerry Brown's tax hike measure, Proposition 30, which is billed as the only hope to prevent more cuts to California schools, was too close to call early Tuesday.

Early returns were inconclusive, according to results from the Secretary of State's Office. After tallying the ballots of about 22 percent of eligible voters, the measure was losing roughly 51 percent to 49 percent, but the results were not representative of the entire state. Both sides were confident they would win.

"I'm feeling pretty confident that this vote will turn out to be in the positive column,'' Brown told NBC, pointing out that early returns that had the measure slightly behind were largely mail-in ballots that tend to be "more conservative.''

If it passes, Proposition 30 would raise the state's sales tax by a quarter of a cent for four years and increase income taxes for people who make at least $250,000 by up to 3 percentage points for seven years. It would raise an average of $6 billion annually for the state's general fund and education to prevent nearly $6 billion in "trigger cuts," mostly to education, this year.

Brown's campaign has raised more than $40 million, mostly from teachers unions and other labor groups. Some business groups, most school districts, celebrities and the state's major newspapers also endorsed the measure, saying a tax increase was needed to balance the state budget and prevent schools from chopping days or even weeks off the school year.

"If Prop. 30 doesn't pass, we'll be looking at huge class sizes and a lot of major cuts," said Kevin Thompson, a teacher in Union School District in San Jose, who took time off from teaching to campaign for the measure. "The early returns look really good; I think the message is out, that this is the way we're going to invest in our students and our schools."

Principal Amy Caroza estimated that Coliseum College Prep Academy in Oakland would lose $200,000 if Proposition 30 fails, and said she didn't know how the school would offset that loss.

"I'm holding my breath, hoping it passes," she said. "I feel very strongly about Proposition 30 being the right thing for schools and kids."

Meanwhile, anti-tax groups led by Bay Area physicist Charles Munger Jr., son of billionaire businessman Charles Munger, and an Arizona group fought hard to defeat the measure. They argued that the state was wasting money on high-profile projects such as high-speed rail and did not need more tax money.

"We are grateful for all the hard work from thousands of small business owners, taxpayers and many groups from around the state in helping us communicate our 'no on 30' messages to voters," the No on 30 campaign said in a statement. "We now wait for the final votes to be counted and determine the will of voters."

Munger's half-sister, Molly Munger, the author of a competing tax-for-education measure, Proposition 38, also briefly launched attack ads against Proposition 30 last month -- and a decline in support for Brown's measure quickly followed in the polls. Munger and Brown spent months feuding over which tax measure was better, and analysts predicted their competing measures could result in both failing.

Another distraction was Brown's pursuit of the identity of the donors behind an Arizona campaign group that gave $11 million to defeat Proposition 30 and pass Proposition 32, leading to a lawsuit from the California Fair Political Practices Commission, which eventually forced the group to disclose the donors.

Still, supporters were optimistic.

"I think Prop. 30 will pass because voters understood this is about our schools," Dan Newman, a spokesman for Yes on 30, said Tuesday night. "They are fed up to the cuts to our schools, with the double-digit tuition hikes, laying off teachers and increasing class sizes."